Gold Tariff – A U.S. Customs and Border Protection ruling on July 31, 2025, reclassified one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars under a 39% tariff, effective August 7, sending shockwaves through global markets. This move reversed expectations of exemption, driving COMEX gold futures to a record $3,534.10 per ounce on August 8. Switzerland, the world’s top gold refiner, faces a $24 billion cost increase on its $61.5 billion in U.S. gold exports, threatening its refining industry.
Swiss Gold Industry Under Pressure
Switzerland, handling 34% of global gold refining, exported 476 tonnes to the U.S. in H1 2025, worth $48.3 billion. The tariffs, targeting COMEX’s most traded bars, have prompted refineries to scale back shipments.
Christoph Wild of the Swiss precious metals association warned that U.S. exports could cease, as even a 5% tariff would render the market unviable. The pre-tariff export boom, driven by safe-haven demand, inflated Switzerland’s trade surplus, fueling U.S. duties.
Economic and Trade Consequences
The tariffs could lead to 7,500–15,000 Swiss job losses, impacting refining and related sectors. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter criticized the U.S. for relying on 2024’s atypical gold export data, which skewed trade deficit calculations.
The 39% duty, compared to the EU’s 15%, may divert refining to Antwerp. U.S. inflation fears, amplified by tariffs, have boosted gold’s safe-haven appeal, with spot prices at $3,386.30.
Investor and Market Dynamics
The tariff ruling spurred a 0.9% futures surge, with investors shifting to gold ETFs and smaller bars to avoid costs. Peter Schiff noted rising premiums on coins, predicting broader tariff expansions.
Global ETF holdings rose 10.77%, reflecting safe-haven demand. The tariffs may tighten U.S. gold supply, pushing prices higher. Swiss refineries are exploring Asian markets, but short-term disruptions are likely.
U.S.-Swiss Trade Talks Intensify
A White House executive order is expected to clarify tariff policies, but no exemptions are confirmed. Swiss negotiations, led by Helene Budliger Artieda, continue after Keller-Sutter’s failed Washington visit.
The Swiss government is exploring relief measures for affected firms, but progress is slow. The outcome of these talks will shape global bullion flows.
Strategic Market Navigation
Investors should leverage gold ETFs like SGOL to bypass tariff costs, while traders face liquidity challenges. Swiss refineries must adapt to new trade realities, potentially pivoting to Asia.
The tariffs highlight gold’s role as a hedge, but stakeholders must stay informed on U.S. policy shifts and trade negotiations to thrive in 2025’s volatile bullion market.
